From what I've experienced so far in this matchup, I believe this matchup is very slightly in favor of Noel. I feel that both characters have the tools to deal with each other and it's just a matter of who gets started first.
Noel has multiple options to deal with Kagura's rushdown options. She can easily 4D a lot of Kagura's normals and stances due to them having really huge startup. She can also just mash 2A to deal with a lot of Kagura's frametraps. She can also just push you out of her blockstrings with a Bloom Trigger to prevent a flashkick reversal.
On the other hand, Noel can't just use optic barrel or throw out a 2D in neutral because she gets easily whiff punished with a well timed 2C and eat tons of damage. She also has subpar reversal/defensive options so once Kagura gets to run his oki and mixup game, she has a very hard time getting out of it aside from doing hard reads.
5.5:4.5 in favor of Noel in my opinion because of how much faster she is and usually the one who gets to start her gameplan first. She rushes Kagura down before he even has time to set up his gameplan.
