You left out some crucial stuff vs Carl. Learn the timing on how to Dp>RC out of Carl unblockable setup. If you dont know how to escape that then just put the controller down and wait for the next round. Also you should be poking at Nirvana with 5a, 5c and jc but do it smart. If you get to predictable with poking nirvana, Carl has a few ways to deal with you such as kara fastfall and 4D. When Nirvana health is very low your able to play a bit more aggressively because Carl will be less likely to use her at neutral. If your going to take a risk make sure you have atleast 50 heat incase you get caught in his unblockable. When you get Carl scared to activate Nirvana thats when he opens up a bit. Overall this match is even imo. Just make it hard for carl to approach, save 50 heat and play smart. Learning the timing on dp>Rc is crucial