I don't know what happened to the matchup sub forums so I'll post this here:
These are my thoughts on the May matchup. Please correct me or feel free to add anything I've missed out:
She's extremely mobile but her normals are quite poor on the ground so it stands to reason she's going to be in the air a lot. Don't commit heavily on the ground unless it is a punish and it'll reduce the likelihood of you getting hit by one of her jumpins.
Control the ground by always being at max beak driver range and punishing her when she does either dolphin or otter so you get CH. Avoid spamming his higher normals in neutral because she can just 6P and body your shit. Don't be afraid to run up in neutral and just sweep because your range is slightly bigger than hers.
In terms of her pressure, I like to use FD because she gets pushed back so easily and you get a bit of breathing space since she's not in her effective range anymore. Be extra vigilant of IAD's off far slash because she can cover herself with j. S j. HS so always aim to throw out a pre-emptive 6P or airthrow.
Her otter setups are heavily spacing dependent. If she's right on top of you and jumps forward, it will always cross up. If she neutral jumps and then IADs, it crosses up. If she's a bit further away and then jumps forward, it doesn't cross up.
If she does a long blockstring and is at risk of being pushed out, they can do 6HS to get back in or punish jump out attempts. Be wary of this and try to interrupt her with DP or a normal.
Don't fuck with her outside of pre-emptive j.P's if you're below her in the air because her air hitbox normals are all just so fucking good.
Some extra things to consider:
- She can easily bait reversals and bursts so be careful on your defense because if she punishes you, it will hurt BAAAAAD
- You're pretty safe to burst her since she's got a lot of moves that put her next to during combos/pressure but to be safe, only burst in the corner or during IAD's midscreen. Definitely don't try to burst her beach ball setup because she's safe if she does it properly
- Respect her wakeup if she's got 50% meter and don't commit to anything big either because she can just use whale and destroy you because you've been counterhit