Alright from my experience the matchup isnt too bad if you could ib consistently. il say this right now, your chances are way better playing on the offense this matchup. This may come as a suprise to many but if you play too defensively he will pretty literally rip you to shreds because his pressure is decent and his mixup is stupid. Also by playing offensively i dont mean airdashing in and trying to force your hits onto him this will also fuq you up Because he has good pokes(5b,5c,2b,maybe 2a) and an amazing AA(2c).
His two biggest weaknesses imo are his options on the defense and him approaching you safely. So it may be better to say you'll have to play offensively defensive.
Time to get a lil in depth.
At the start the match its generally smart to 4c as haku because 1. it should beat out most of his options and 2. it would give you a little heads up on how your opponent should play.
When the game is at neutral DO NOT try to force your way in that said, you should have the advantage in this situation because at this point you have better pokes (4c,Jc)
and his approach is not too solid against hakumen because since he has no ground dash like haku so he is pretty much religated to getting in from the air and/or closing space with his pokes and believe it or not his pokes are about just as slow as yours and not as good in this situation do not forget this. his approaches should consist of wolfing to get in, air dashing, barrier dashing, hopping in and plain ol closing the distance with decent pokes.
Air dashing and barrier dashing are the most straight forward of his approaches because of their set trajectory and therefore the easiest to counter,
So to stop an air dash simply Jc em.
-if it hits IAD to get to them you should get there shortly after they get up,
here you have they advantage because valks defensive options arent the best so he really only has a few decent moves,
save blocking, to make in this situation(2c,backdash,DD this isnt the smartest but its still an option)
-well if he's planning on 2c'ing he will have to do it right away and because its fairly slow you should be able to react to it with Jd a
if you catch them with this 2 or 3 times they will most definitely block in this situation most of the time
-to stuff a backdash if you expect it delay ur J2c/Jb or land 3c into a combo, if you didnt expect it and you attacked low to the ground 2a,2b,3c immedietly after you land if your confident D em.
if you attacked to high in the air to punish block or D if your confident.
-to stuff a DD Block em ib'ing the whole DD should net you about 3 stars added to the stars you have you should be able to punish him to hell. if he whiffs full charge 6c fatal combo da bitch
-If they block the Jc start a lil haku pressure with 2a's 2b'sand 6a's and mix up with 3c's 6b's 663214c's and grabs(side note:623a without the follow up is a good tick throw tool as most attack gat into
it).Also guard breaking isnt a bad tactic to go with against him.This is generally what you do when they block an air attack from you,unless they are close then hotaru em
when they stop barriering or if they IB it because they will definitely attack.
To stop a barrier dash just follow the same routine as above if the block your Jc when they dash in.
To stop wolfing in: it really depends on how they go about it..
-if they dash directly at you you get a free attack have fun with it.
-if they try and come in from above 5a or Jd or just plain Jc them if possible.
-if they come in from behind, which is practically the same as coming above but with less time to react, do what you would do if they approach from above
To stop hopping in just zone and react accordingly
-5a to stuff some jump ins jd to stuff others and jc whenever its possible because it is usually the best option 4c at 80%+ max range otherwise its not safe.
I pretty much covered what you should do on neutral and a lil on the offense
I will post more on the def and more on the offense later feeling a little lazy right now