Matchup Ranking: 4/6 Tsubaki
Recommended Playstyle: Rush Down
You do not want give Tsubaki a chance to charge. Charge = Damage. Also, her block strings and mix-ups are dangerous. You don't have a good reversal, so don't give her momentum.
General Strategy:
Once again, do not let Tsubaki get momentum on you. Prevent her from charging. Don't get overzealous with your drives, she does have a DP after all. She can break out easily if she is blocking your drive chain. In addition, her follow-up normals can sometimes beat your invul frames (ex: Tsubaki's 5B whiffs during Noel's 5D, but 5BB hits before 5D does). Stick to your normals, and stay unpredictable. She lost most of her projectile invincibility, not that most of Noel's attacks are real projectiles.
Your Best Tools(For This Matchup):
6A - Your main anti-air. Tsubaki has a lot of angles of entry, especially with jump cancelable normals and aerial specials (j.214X). Usual method for shutting down air entry.
5B/5C - Used for spacing. Some cases, if Tsubaki's normals hit at max range, the followups may whiff. If your opponent isn't good at hit confirming, they will tend to mash out the followups instead of canceling into 22A at 5B max range. Tsubaki's normals range are actually not that long, outside of her 5B. So use these to keep her out of her comfort zone. A counterhit will lead to a tasty 3C.
2D - 2D always good to jump some of her normals and specials for some massive damage. Be careful when you throw it out though. Tsubaki can 5B or easily gatling into 2C which stuffs 2D, no problem. 5D isn't as good to throw out against Tsubaki because of the change in invulnerable frames. Best used if you know Tsubaki is going to throw out a 6A or 6B. It can also beat 236X series with the right spacing, but don't try to go for that.
Optic Barrel - Buff to Optic Barrel's speed is very useful. Very good in keeping Tsubaki players scared to charge or at least slows them down. Using it after she knocks you down to prevent her from stocking as many charges as could have. Closest to zoning we will ever get, but watch out for her 236X attacks. They outspeed your OB.
Has A DP?: Yes. A and D both have invincibility frames. Her DP's count as projectiles (except D version) and hits in front of her. Also noted, Tsubaki's 214X have different upper/head invincibility, based on input. She can use her DP to end a Drive blockstring.
Has A DP With Heat?: Not too different from dealing with her normal DP. She can special cancel her DPs into other stuff for combos, so she doesn't really need to use heat in most cases. Other than that, her 236236C/D has pretty good invincibility on startup.
On Defense
On Offense
Things To Look Out For:
She's got a lot for you to worry about. Tsubaki has a lot of tools to shut down Noels. On top of that, she can easily go for a Guard Crush with 236C/22C . Her 236C is + on block at max range, but punishable when used at point blank. With Charge, she can put you in an unblockable setup in the corner. You can 5D through it with the right timing though.
Be sure to watch her Charge gauge. Her D version specials are really good. Her 214X specials have upper body invincibility, so be careful if those are being thrown out. She can also end a block string with 22C, if she is after your primers. Watch out if she tries to charge cancel in her block strings. In addition, she can cancel any of her hit/blocked/whiffed moves with her D version specials to bait Drives or punish pokes. You could probably 5A/2A when she tries, since Tsubaki's 5D has some recovery and 2D has a minimum startup, in addition that now charging gives a counterhit state. Tsubaki also has a decent karathrow. Her 5B, 2A, and 6B are all + on block.
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updated - 8/21/11
