Maybe she's just easy to punish for me, Iunno.
But whenever I play with somebody they whine about Carl's hitbox, and I always assumed that me getting out of certain combos was because of that.
I'm a Carl player and I have a friend who plays a lvl 40 Makoto. I think this matchup is generally in Carl's favor because of her short range and how easy it is to get her in between the doll because she's a rush down character. I think it's also really easy for Carl to punish her mixups because she's so predictable. Also he has a tiny hitbox.