I used to main Sin and fought a Ky a lot. I've switched to Ky and now kind of sub Sin, so I think I got a pretty good idea on how this matchup goes on both sides. This will mostly contain stuff from a Ky player's perspective.
This matchup feels fairly even despite the damage difference, but now there's definitely a strong argument for this matchup being advantageous for Ky. 5.5-4.5? I could be playing the matchup wrong, but it feels like on Ky's side it's a lot of patience in neutral and running a gameplan with few mistakes.
On Sin's side it feels like a fairly frustrating neutral game without spamming beak driver, while Sin is just fishing for a handful of good confirms or slip ups on Ky's part to end him.
Sin's mixup and oki are quite lacking without sacrificing meter or damage, so I find it better to just read and/or react to what Sin will do and respond appropriately. Ky should not be getting opened up by Sin's meterless mixup, since most of it is fairly predictable or react-able. 5D and bull bash are fairly slow overheads, but j.D could definitely be a problem with its 18f startup. Double overhead with an air button into j.D shouldn't be a problem either, since there's a gap where Sin just suspends himself in the air, which is Ky's cue to block high. Sin has a very easy and safe time cranking up the RISC meter, which means despite his lackluster mixup, Ky should NOT be constantly sitting down and blocking. That will only make things better on Sin's side if he gets a confirm.
It's a different story if Sin either has 50 meter or knows the corner crossup setup. Voltic deign, which is 50 meter for around two seconds of "hold this" leads to a 50/50 between rising j.H or a low and will most likely take away most of your life if guessed wrong.
Oki on Sin's side is, again, lacking without sacrificing meter for voltic deign, or sacrificing damage by not using up most of the food gauge. If Sin eats, it's back to neutral on both sides. Not eating gives Sin the initiative, but I'm uncertain if it's worth it to just crank the risc bar or get one mixup through delayed leap into spaced low/low airdash j.(X).
Ending Sin's offense can be rather difficult, the ability to special cancel moves so long as he has calories inevitably leads to a situation where Ky can be ended off the next confirm. IBing, dead angles, and smart use of FD are your best bets.
Neutral wise, it seems like Ky has an easier time, but Sin definitely has his chances to beat Ky out or guess right. And again, because of the damage difference, those few chances could be all Sin really needs.
Ky's normals beat out most of Sin's. Matchup should mostly be decided on the ground because they both have pretty good anti airs(6Ps, Ky 2H) with decent rewards. It's undeniable that it's sword > flag when both players are just pressing buttons, but it doesn't mean Ky should be completely dominating the ground-game. Sin's beak driver, despite being "limited" by his food meter is one of Sin's best tools in this matchup, beating out pretty much all of Ky's normals in that range.
On Ky's side, Stun edge has to be used sparingly and at appropriate distances, or YRC'd to make it safe. Appropriate distance typically means almost fullscreen, to be completely safe from reaction slide or getting hit by neutral beak driver. Reaction slide/beak driver will just go through them without YRC to save Ky. Leap (optional YRC)> j.6H > 2H into DAMAGE is also a very real threat. If the stun edges go through a grinder then it'll be fine (duh). Ky also has to be careful about throwing out delayed stun edges at the end of a blockstring too predictably.
I believe that a good ~30% of the matchup can be influenced by how well Ky can deal with beak driver, how willing he is to take risks and how often it pays off. If Ky can dissuade or shut down Sin from using beak driver through, then this matchup can become much more skewed.
Beak driver is fairly obnoxious to deal with in neutral for Ky. Since again, it beats out pretty much all of Ky's normals in its range. Stun dipper goes under it, so there's that. Beak Driver also usually leads to Sin typically doing slide > beak driver > slide, which really cranks up the RISC unless Ky FDs to get out. That blockstring also catches mashing if Sin slightly delays between the slides/beak drivers. If Sin is too far to slide after beak driver, the mash H followup can catch Ky jumping out, so watch out for that. Sin can also wait and do another beak driver to beat out Ky running up/airdashing in. Eating after max range beak driver is also fairly common, since the first reaction after a beak driver lands (for a lot of people) is to sit and block. However, beak driver > eat isn't safe no matter what the distance.
There's no particularly easy or guaranteed way for Ky to deal with beak driver. However, if the Ky is willing to commit he can dissuade Sin from using it. One fairly strong option is for Ky to do either a running forward jump or stun dipper right at the area where Sin would want to beak driver, which can vary depending on the player. Either right outside beak driver range (would hit if you continued running or FD brake) or right inside beak driver range are usually the spots. They're both rather risky options since Sin can easily punish if he just decides to do nothing - 6P into half of Ky's life for the forward jump or a decent chunk of Ky's meter for FDing, and just blocking > instant blocking stun dipper for a punish.
Bull bash shouldn't be an issue, if Ky is getting hit by bull bash on the ground in neutral then he has bigger things to worry about. Ky should just block or FD if he's in the air, since getting hit by bull bash in the air as Ky leads to pain, which is bad. Blitz/stun dipper beat it out pretty clean, assuming you're within distance for the latter. Sins mixing it up by doing bull bash YRC to counter blitz is also a possibility, so Kys can't get too overzealous with blitz. Max-ish range bull bash > eat is also fairly common, so Ky should watch out for that.
Ky's offense can be kept straightforward and simple against Sin, just keep in mind that he has a DP. Sin's DP, hawk baker, is kind of awful, but it's safe on block and leads to him reversing the momentum if he has food to follow it up with beak driver or slide. Reversal hawk baker pretty much negates Ky's 6H oki if Ky gets hit by it or even if Ky has to block. Ky has to bait it out and make it whiff to get the punish, respect the DP, or space 6H properly, which isn't too hard. His DP can also be used as a frame trap -
Most Sins shouldn't have a problem managing their calorie gauge, unless they go overboard with beak driver/slides in neutral or mess up a combo. If Sin is ever low on food for whatever reason, Ky should go in and try to stay in. Sin's normals are decent, but as a character he's rather reliant on his specials to both deal damage and heighten his presence in neutral. When Sin is in a low calorie situation, Ky should definitely capitalize on it. Low calorie means anywhere from zero (best case) to 3000 (hawk bawker > any special would play the hunger animation).
6H, 6K, j.D to reset pressure and keep Sin in blockstun is important in this situation. Ky always wants to force Sin to part with either as much meter or life as he can. Dead angles from the Sin's side should be expected when their food is low/almost gone. Ky can also force Sin into a low-calorie gauge situation by sacrificing (potentially a lot) of life and his burst. This can be accomplished by bursting close to the end of Sin's combo.
However, it's still important to keep in mind that Sin isn't helpless in this scenario. Since his normals are decent it's reasonable to assume the Sin player might decide he can can live without his specials and will just wait and fish to get a confirm into knockdown, where he can eat. With 50 meter and 1000 to 3000 calories, he can also do DP > slide and RC to eat.
The matchup is overall very neutral focused. It will revolve around whoever has the better ground neutral and more patience, along with how the players interact both countering and using beak driver. Both characters have rather lackluster mixup during blockstrings, but it's still not a good situation to be put into blockstun for either character. Sin's monstrous damage only gets scarier if Ky is too afraid to press buttons. Likewise, Ky can get good damage off his own gameplan through mixing up (tick)throws and staggered pressure to fish for counterhits.
Sort of updated it for Rev 1.03. These are my thoughts on the matchup, I probably didn't cover everything and may be wrong on some stuff. I hope this helps people out though.
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[Xrd] King Ky - Combo/Setup Listing and Discussion
Yeah, most people just get there at around 6PM though.