Okay blakmaphia. Going to post tidbits as I watch the replay. I'll number my points as I write them down.
1) 6CD during a blockstring really does push the opponent but it is also IB bait and gives your opponent a lot of meter. That one wind spent doing 6CD could be used for high/low mix-up instead. Perhaps you were afraid of Ragna DP but if you never give Ragna a reason to use ID then you cannot bait ID either.
2) At the beginning of the match you should summon pumpkin as soon as you can. Instead you opted for a jump back j.236C. I would normally only use this if I run out of wind and anticipate an approach. Otherwise just superjump back and summon pumpkin.
3) After 2C CH you had at least 50 heat so you could go for 5k+ combo.
4) Just finished watching first match. There was not a single pumpkin summon in that one. It's really important you get one out.
5) Watching 2nd match. Any type of Lobelia opening move can be beat out by one of Ragna's normals. After seeing the first match and how Leonil started his rounds you had low-risk of just doing IAD back and pumpkin. I don't know if anyone uses this but you can superjump backwards and do a backwinded IAD and summon pumpkin + frog right away and you have a safe setup. If they come towards you you wind pumpkin downward hitting them out of approach and often times you will get frog hit right after.
6) Leo is just getting in there. Use 236A if you notice your opponent is just running in.
7) Again. Weak mix-up is why your opponent is not going to open up. Use 4B! Go for 2D j.A mix-up. If he DPs then that's one more read you have on him.
8) Great. You landed BBL corner combo. However, don't end it in the air! This allows him to tech and get out of the corner for free. Instead end it with 5CC > frog. This opens up all sorts of options for Rachel and is where Rachel is the scariest.
9) Yes 3rd match. Finally a pumpkin summon. Don't be afraid to use wind on getting the opponent to block it. If you confirm block you can go straight into mix-up.
10) Learn how to hitconfirm what kind of 2C CH you get. If they are too high up then go for a j.C air combo instead. The optimal damage comes from a tricky j.[C] combo but even a simple j.C > j.C > j.236A would suffice. At times you can also go for sj.C > lv.2 j.2C combo.
11) Don't forget that you have Tempest Dahlia. Use it sometimes. Great for refilling wind. Use it for guard break opportunities as well by keeping an eye on your opponent's primers if you have enough wind for higher level TD.
12) Where you j.236X you could have also summoned pumpkin safely. At this point only go for j.236X if you have no wind.
13) Ouch. You got tech roll punished by Ragna 2B. You have to respect Ragna on your teching options. Just neutral tech and block. Occasionally you can go for the neutral tech + wind > stuff.
Well that's as far as I got for now. This should be more than enough to take in.
Oh and don't post in this thread if you have nothing to contribute Dorian.