SkyKing

I see this as 5-5 or 5.5-4.5 Makoto. Makoto can just play defensive if she isn't up close. I think the ability to parry will decide this matchup, as most of Noel's normals are about the right distances to which Makoto can expect. Space loop hurts, since ending in oki can lead to setups for a loop reset or a baited 5D to get parried. She can also stuff air dashes and whiffed moves with Big Bang Smash, so be mindful when Makoto gets 50 Heat. On the flipside, Noel has 5C, which is pretty hard to parry, and her drives still go through Makoto's if they just throw them out there carelessly. 6A can actually be usable here since Makoto's aerials are kinda slow, but her jump is kinda odd so it may take some spacing. Haida looping her is pretty weird, but just getting knockdown and damage should be good. Makoto's wakeups can include Asteroid Visions, Corona Upper (her dp), and Big Bang Smash. Just bait these out and punish.

There may be too many hits when d.C or BT becomes active. I'd cut the combo short one move, likely the d.C. j.D, d.6B, BT instead of j.D, d.6B, d.C, BT.

I would probably rate Mu where Jin is right now, maybe a little bit higher. With her mid-to-long range style, I think she would need to be able to adapt on the fly. She's really good at locking and trapping, but I feel she'll lose more than her fair share against the more aggressive of the cast, like Bang, Ragna, and Tao. Also, her normals or sub-par save her 6A and C's, so matchups could be determined by that as well.

I've now started to analyze match videos from the perspective of the player who loses. I think that understanding why you lose is another factor that goes into growing up as a player. Especially with characters that have major matchup problems, I feel it is imperative that you know why you get caught in something, or why some things do not work. You can't be perfect if you don't know what flaws to stay away from.