Okay...I think this is off a bit.
1. Hakumen is a bigger target than most. I think it's pretty easy to bait a burst if you're stuck in a ground loop. No one said that you had to barrier burst in the first seven seconds. Good Carls wait for that to happen. :/
2. Yes, Hakumen has more range than Carl and most of his normals> Carl's normals, but this battle isn't a battle of normals. Most of the time, it's whether Hakumen slaughters Carl before he does his loops, or Carl rapes Hakumen. Period.
3. Do you fight many Carl?
4. I think 50-50 is right. If not 50-50, then 45-55 in Carl's favor...