OK so, this is what I was going to explain about the Haku Nu matchup.
Hakumen in CP lives and dies by his counter hits. And not just any counterhit, but off 3C and 6B. If I can't get anything off those, then I'm SOL. Well, 5C too, but basically, if you don't try to mash out and just focus on up backing and backdashing out at the right time, you will probably beat 95% of the Hakumens you run into just because of that. Anything I can do to punish it requires guessing, and if I guess right it is only 2k or so.
And without much oki it is basically like we are at neutral all the time.
You will notice, Toan, that this is how you normally always play, so that is why there is this huge difference. In EX he could open people up much easier, but now he is reliant on you to make a mistake so he can get damage off it with his particular starters like 5C and 3C. If you don't give him that chance then all he has is OD.
But since there isn't much damage I can do off a low without CH, you can just block high most of the time (like you already do) and be safe from Tsubaki > Hotaru > OD setups.
Yeah but at that point I'm just making psychic reads to make up for all of it. Like when I throw you in the corner and get 6 resets off non CH 6B and such in a row to win.