Just found out about a new technique that might help this match-up for Nu, I'm calling it "crouch buffering".
So you can duck Tao's Pounce super, right? Well it turns out that you don't lose the invincibility to the super as soon as you stand up, so that means that you can crouch, do a move, and the crouch you did before the move can protect you from the super even while you're doing a standing move.
Since this is possible, you can do at least some pressure on Tao even when she has 50 heat, and punish pounces earlier more safely.