Although I agree every type of grappler needs to take risks, great grappler players know how to minimize them either through defense, time and read, or abuse of system. Vance, for one, minimizes risks using option selects in his style, canceling out misreads with percentage options in SSF4. Galileo uses a read and defense. Jan uses defense, Hayao uses his execution (parry, parry in 3s) to open up a mistake from his opponent.
I'm not playing down the risk that Tager has to use to win, but relying on risks and reads only go so far. Sometimes the opponent is just someone new AND good; you can't expect 2 matches will give you enough time to figure out how to apply appropriate risks, which leads into...
What happens with Tager:
1) You take a risk and it either gives you a reward or it gets you punished.
OR
2) You count on your opponent cracking under pressure that's safe or semi-safe so you can capitalize off of their messup or opening to cause damage.
Thing is with 2, you are taking advantage of Tager's natural eminence. He spews out that grappler aura, and whether people recognize it or not, everyone, and I mean, everyone gets scared of a good grappler on offense. Just by being close to the opponent, the opponent has to be nervous. This is an option that Tager has.
Noel, sadly, doesn't make people nervous when she's close. If you have good reaction, you can block her overheads, block her lows, tech her throws, blah, blah, blah.
She doesn't force you to do ANYTHING. With Tager, if you are within grab range, you always have to make a decision: reversal, continue blocking, jump/back dash.
Thus, when it comes to risk, I believe Noel definitely has it harder because of shitty hitbox on her normals, bad priority, and useless overall D-drives that SHOULD go punished every time she tries to use them. Although Noel gains more meter than Tager per combo, she needs to use it to rapid a bad risk and get out of there.
For Tager players, we have options that can be negated through 4d or simply stopping our blockstrings, which, although gives pressure back to our opponent, doesn't leave us getting punished.
6a 2c (delay) 4d is a relatively safe block string that baits out pokers and trains opponents into blocking further. 5a 5b 2b 5b 2b is the safest blockstring Tager has: it stops reversals, back dashes, and jumps. This is your testing blockstring that helps supplement the risk and the read. If they keep getting hit by the block string, you know they are scared and a jumper. If they don't, then you know you can tick throw them.