Soujiro always write novels. And is very on point with a lot of stuff.
Let me use his synopsis as an outline, and I can agree/disagree with some stuff accordingly, since I'm not known to be a cunning linguist.
Here are some of the things that have gotten me/ I tend to watch out for the most when playing against Tager.
This is probably one of the most accurate matchup summaries I've ever read. (There maybe be some arguments for Carl being more mobile than Hakumen, but this can be debated later.) I bolded what I did, because he's 100% correct on that one. That guessing game is very dangerous for Carl. Probably one of the most terrifying moments for a Carl player is being stuck in a blockstring while magnetized. Counter is definitely a no-no, and even just trying to get out is iffy. If your yomi is strong, this will be the Carl player's downfall. If you suspect they're being predictable, and they're magnetized, you have the tools to beat barrier (360), backdash (6A) and vivace (360, 2C), and beat them BAD.
Can't stress it enough, take advantage of every second of magnetism.
It srsbizness.
Yes, spark bolt will stop a lot of the 5C stuff, but I somewhat disagree about the usefulness of Carl's 5C anyway. It's a great poke for spacing, creating blockstun, etc, but it's also really bad in the sense that it alters Carl's hitbox in a way that makes it trade with A LOT of stuff. I'm not familiar with Tager at all, but Mike Z may be able to tell you what it's most likely to trade with, and how to capitalize. It happens a lot when I play him. Also, the fact that Carl's 5C isn't jump cancelable on block makes it unsafe, imo, especially when he's magnetized. If you learn what will trade with it, you should probably be trying to do so, since I'm sure Tager would gladly trade hits with Carl, given their life situations. Carl can rarely/never recover from anything his 5C trades with in time to have a favorable position, so use this to your advantage.
Gadget finger is the bane of carl's existence. The only safe way out is gold burst. EVERYTHING else is a guessing game. If you're agro off of Gadget finger, and nirvana is close, Carl may be able to get out punching super to hopefully trade and gtfo, but if you're not already attacking and he tries to guess this one, you could probably super flash buffer a 720/definitely super flash buffer spinny super and put an end to that. Gadget finger poses a real threat to Carl, I know a lot of tager players question the usefulness of this move, and I'm not sure how it relates to most other matchups, but vs. Carl it's going to be very important. The guessing game is much better for you than it is for him. Once again, pay attention to the Carl player. See if he is more of a passive/aggressive player, and guess on whether he'll vivace (bad choice imo,) Backdash (risky but can pay off. 6A makes him never do this again though,) or just block and try to react (probably the best option for him, honestly, and that's not a very favorable position.)
This is probably going to happen a lot if you're playing smart, which can end up in your favor if you maintain an early life lead.
The Carl player isn't going to want to risk it at first. Jump ins are semi unsafe, unless they're passive (using barrier), which isn't even that smart. Probably will be right after 6D/fuoco, both let you IB and potentially punish. 6D can be IB'd and Carl's jump in can be backdashed into command grab/whatever, if his airdash is late, 2C will help, and if it's blocked, well atleast Carl and nirvana are still on one side of you. 2C is less reliable, since I think it may be possible for Carl to IB and FCH j.B, which is about 3.5k for free. Fuoco, let's you IB for tons of meter, and possibly punish with command grab, which is 50% of the match won already if you get it. I would say try and land one in every round (easier said than done, right?), because it's so terrible for Carl to be aggressive trying to play catch up. If he's forced to do this, he's going to take risks, and be unsafe, which is where your reaction/ability to punish will come in. You can backdash any of his jumpins, and if you don't think you have time to punish/can't get a back dash in, you can IB j.B/j.C and just throw for combo/they tech, but you've reset some spacing.
In block strings, if you're IBing, the Carl player is going to be afraid to be on the ground. It's a huge risk, given your shit life. He's going to be using a lot of jump cancelable moves, as to not get hit by IB anything. If you've put the fear of being on the ground into him, start yomi-ing stuff, if you sense you're not a too great of a risk. Yomi collider is actually very strong, and 2C gets you out of a lot of stuff. You know that 5B>IAD>j.2C allecan crossup that everyone hates? 2C it. You'll trade, but you'll be able to combo. it's ridiculous.
I hope I'm not disappointing you, as I'm terrible with formulating thoughts. "/
I just thought having two Carl players perspectives might liven things up.
(kind of hard, since I agree with most of soujiro's points, so I'm providing my reasons for agreeing.)
