A nice chat you have here.
From my personal experience as a Venom versus Axl, my 5S or 2S range is the last place where I want to be in this matchup (neutral position, no balls around). In the best case scenario, I successfully poke and summon the ball... only to go to block and be pushed away from the ball. In worst case, I get a counter-hit and\or knockdown off Rensen ([4]6S). And risk\reward is not in Venom's favor here.
Of course if I ever get a full screen distance, this is good. And getting close _with a ball summoned_ is good for Venom as well. But significiant part of the game is the midrange, and Venom cannot effectively get off midrange (jump is banned, poking is risky, dashing without balls is suicide) except by blocking =)
Also, during attack Venom may have more mixups with balls out, but Axl does more damage. Period. And in close range, TK Bomber >>>> TK madstruggle =)
So I cannot agree that this matchup favors Venom as much as 6-4. I'd rather say that it is pretty even, like 5-5 or something. It is just may feel heavier for Axl players because you have to alter game plan significantly, but it isn't easy for Venom as well - normally you aren't punished for summoning balls from the other side of screen ))