What Hiago said, and really work on your hit confirm. Also be aware of your surroundings. At 0:36, you were almost in the corner, and you could have a done a better combo leading into corner oki which would at the very least cost him a burst. You dropped a lot of combo opportunities such as 0:23, and 0:50 and 53. 0:50 and 53 especially were really good openings. Opponent in the corner, non A starter = big damage + oki or HUGE damage. If you had confirmed all those opportunities, you would have SURELY won the first round. I'm not really sure what you tried to do at 0:53. Why the 6C?
Same thing in the second round. A lot of dropped combo opportunities, no hit confirms, no combos at all. Also, at 2:21 when he was doing his fireball, you should have BBS. BBS any dumb full screen move your opponent is doing. They'll learn that doing dumb random shit against Makoto is not smart.
Also, learn to grab/tick throw. You didn't try a single grab in the whole match except when you missed your 214A~C-mash combo.
I think you just need to get more familiar with Makoto. Learn combos, learn her mixups, learn to do different block strings. Also, XX>Asteroid Vision> B J.2C> Hit confirm into 5C on CH, 2a on normal hit, jump cancel on block is a pretty damn safe option against a lot of characters.
For the Tsubaki matchup particularly, punish her aerial dive and her midscreen dash attack (236X) with 3C for big damage. All of Makoto's jump ins lose to her 2C except J.2C, so be carefully about jumping in on her. Her pokes outrange you, so remember that. Also, don't respect her DP. It trades all day with everything and can even get stuffed sometimes.