Loli Bacon Posted January 17, 2014 Posted January 17, 2014 7-3 is terrible, lol. 7-3 is pretty bad, but it doesn't make them unviable.
Errol Posted January 17, 2014 Posted January 17, 2014 7-3 is pretty bad, but it doesn't make them unviable. Are you for real bro? 7-3 Means around an 80% win rate in matches. Which bumps up to ~90% in a Best of 3. The power of science
FallenWhite Posted January 17, 2014 Posted January 17, 2014 None of her matchups are 9-1 or worse. As a Kokonoe player, I know there are plenty of ways to stop me from doing things. I don't know what everyone can do in those scenarios, but I see her holes and weaknesses. I'm just waiting for people to capitalize on them. Even if she invalidates a character, that character would have to run into her in a tournament setting. This isn't specifically limited to Kokonoe, as characters like Tager deal with this all the time. People who say "she makes only 5 characters tournament viable" are wrong as that's too vague. She makes certain characters not tournament viable AGAINST her. If they never run into one, they're still fully viable. The people who use those characters need to realize they run the risk of running into a bad matchup; learn an alt. This isn't uncommon. But for a large portion of the cast (it's one character they have to worry about) this isn't necessary. Can't say it any better, just cos ya got a 3-7 matchup playing ya main doesn't mean you have to eat that 3-7, learn an alt to cover your holes, and then love that delicious fact of not having to deal with rough stuff. [FYI, Kokonoe suffers from really good in the face pressure...so learn Bullet and her projectile invulnerable goodness?]
Elochai Posted January 17, 2014 Posted January 17, 2014 Or just learn Kokonoe so you play a 5-5 instead of a 7-3.
mAc Chaos Posted January 17, 2014 Posted January 17, 2014 Can't say it any better, just cos ya got a 3-7 matchup playing ya main doesn't mean you have to eat that 3-7, learn an alt to cover your holes, and then love that delicious fact of not having to deal with rough stuff. [FYI, Kokonoe suffers from really good in the face pressure...so learn Bullet and her projectile invulnerable goodness?] That just turns the game into Koko Phantasma. And sniped.
FallenWhite Posted January 17, 2014 Posted January 17, 2014 You're right, but again, none of her matchups are worse than 8-2, with most of them being 7-3s. 7-3 matchups don't make them unviable, it just makes her difficult to deal with. I'm just saying for those people who have 8-2 matchups against her (I'm pretty sure it's just Tager at the moment, might be someone else as more is uncovered) pick up another character who doesn't do terrible against her (Mu comes to mind). You don't know this. Most of the tournaments we've had thus far didn't have many Kokonoe players. The most recent tournament that happened had a Kokonoe mirror grand finals, but that is the first instance of this happening. A-I think that was mostly cos SKD was saying Kokonoe alone isn't the issue, it's the player behind 'em...or some sorta calling out tier whores/stream mosnters or the sort B-Outta curiosity, where on earth is the matchup data for this game? Can never seem to find the BB matchup stuff
Loli Bacon Posted January 17, 2014 Posted January 17, 2014 Are you for real bro? 7-3 Means around an 80% win rate in matches. Which bumps up to ~90% in a Best of 3. The power of science Let's standardized what a 7-3 match up means. Does it mean per round or per match? Depending on the definition, probabilities change. In which case, it should be standardized to a best out of 3 rounds match. A-I think that was mostly cos SKD was saying Kokonoe alone isn't the issue, it's the player behind 'em...or some sorta calling out tier whores/stream mosnters or the sort B-Outta curiosity, where on earth is the matchup data for this game? Can never seem to find the BB matchup stuff We don't really have official matchup data yet, she's only 2 months old. That's why I think it's too early to call for her ban.
FallenWhite Posted January 17, 2014 Posted January 17, 2014 Let's standardized what a 7-3 match up means. Does it mean per round or per match? Depending on the definition, probabilities change. In which case, it should be standardized to a best out of 3 rounds match. We don't really have official matchup data yet, she's only 2 months old. That's why I think it's too early to call for her ban. It isn't for every 10 matches, optimum play versus optimum play, how many they win? And, I meant in general, I can find every other game fine, but no real solid BB stuff, 'd be so handy to have that to hand!
Loli Bacon Posted January 17, 2014 Posted January 17, 2014 (edited) It isn't for every 10 matches, optimum play versus optimum play, how many they win? And, I meant in general, I can find every other game fine, but no real solid BB stuff, 'd be so handy to have that to hand! I thought it was, but based on Errol's post, the math he seemed to use supports a per-round thought process. With the current definition of a 7-3 matchup, it's a 30% chance per match to win, and so to win two matches without losing a match would be .3 x .3 = .09 = 9%. To win 2 matches while having lost one is higher, at about 15.3%. This is assuming even skill level. EDIT: Made mistakes in my probability calculations. Doing it again now. EDIT EDIT: Nah, I was right, I just did it with a bunch of shortcuts. xD Edited January 17, 2014 by Loli Bacon
BananaKun Posted January 17, 2014 Posted January 17, 2014 Kokonoe is overpowered, but the problem is proving *how* overpowered. She is not ST Akuma. While it's *possible* to show HDR Akuma levels of overpowered if you could have someone like Damdai with HDR Akuma destroy everyone, it's a different game/different timeline. HDR was simply a rebalance of a long standing game, and it is well understood why ST/HDR Akuma's designs break the game. BBCP on the other hand is a major revision with new system mechanics, new characters, and the OP character in question was introduced only a few months ago, so people are still learning to the extent that she affects the current "meta". Yes it's clear she does way too much damage and messes with neutral game very easily, but unless it's easy to show that matches are unwinnable against her, the best argument in favor of banning her are results (I hope this is a straightforward enough conclusion for most people). Some recent examples: I got 4th at Frosty Faustings and I honestly got bodied by CrazyApe, and I also lost to Chosen Ninja. That doesn't mean I can't win very convincingly further down the road of course, but this is a far cry from the dominance Damdai proved with HDR Akuma. SKD switching to Kokonoe in grand finals doesn't really mean much when he breezed through the tournament with Ragna and/or possibly Izayoi. Rebel Up is probably a better example and featured better players, but Pain was still sent to losers and had to reset the bracket to finally get 1st. Interestingly, banning console characters period was the norm for some communities. Back in SCII days console characters were banned on principle since most of the playtesting and balancing was done assuming an arcade release. For console, characters were announced and then subsequently released with no location testing or anything. Though it sounds like a kneejerk reaction to ban console characters like this, supposedly Necrid was way too strong so it did have some merit. If a character was deemed to be not busted over time, then the ban is lifted. I think this would have been the most logical choice to make for BBCP with no prior experience with the characters. The whole "lifting embargo on Kokonoe" would have been a whole other topic of discussion for sure, but it would've been an interesting option. Another thing is ArcSys doesn't seem to care about Kokonoe being as strong as she is, might take as long as BBCP2:Valk Has Jetpacks Edition for people to see any nerfs. For this iteration, Kokonoe is here to stay. TL;DR It's too late to do a "console characters ban" to stick with arcade balancing, and as of yet we still don't have a Damdai destroying everyone with Kokonoe. I feel the latter would be the most compelling way to show she should be banned, as it is with most games. Yes, these fighting games tend to have a relatively short life cycle, so even if the Damdai route is successful some may argue it will be too little too late, but if people were that concerned about these things then the community should have gone the SCII route, or get good faster with Kokonoe.
Maho Posted January 17, 2014 Posted January 17, 2014 Per round is the correct way to go for matchups, but 3/7 is like Tager vs Nu in CT, do people think she own most of the cast as bad as that? As for potentials counters, I wouldn't call that a hard counter but I think Hakumen has a notable edge against her, she can't use her best oki tools because of counters, can't zone him properly due to passive meter gain (and everything you throw will either be cut or countered for more meter), she hardly can anti air him, he dominates her in the air and his pressure is safe against TPs. Some people think that Azrael is a problem for her (IMO it's not really), like Hakumen he negates her best okis and also is immune to Black Hole, plus his pressure auto-punishes TPs, but unlike Hakumen he can't wait looking at his meter go up and he has quite a hard time getting in, though the matchup gets a shift in his favor if he gets a phallanx.
TD Posted January 17, 2014 Posted January 17, 2014 You're right, but again, none of her matchups are worse than 8-2, with most of them being 7-3s. 7-3 matchups don't make them unviable, it just makes her difficult to deal with. I'm just saying for those people who have 8-2 matchups against her (I'm pretty sure it's just Tager at the moment, might be someone else as more is uncovered) pick up another character who doesn't do terrible against her (Mu comes to mind). You don't know this. Most of the tournaments we've had thus far didn't have many Kokonoe players. The most recent tournament that happened had a Kokonoe mirror grand finals, but that is the first instance of this happening. If this happened once, it can and very likely will, happen again. The evidence is beginning to unravel before our very eyes. I want her to be banned. However, I stated before that tournament results will most likely decide a dispute of this magnitude. It is beginning. It will be a slow and painful era of Kokonoe taking over the scene, it won't happen immediately. There will be other characters but the people placing high/winning will likely be her. It only gets worse from here unless it is stopped.
Errol Posted January 17, 2014 Posted January 17, 2014 Let's standardized what a 7-3 match up means. Does it mean per round or per match? Depending on the definition, probabilities change. In which case, it should be standardized to a best out of 3 rounds match. We don't really have official matchup data yet, she's only 2 months old. That's why I think it's too early to call for her ban. The standards are roughly per round. And, we don't *ever* get "official" matchup charts. Never ever ever do we get such a thing. It doesn't exist. And the only time to discuss a ban is now. Why, because this is an actively developed game. There will be a new release before that side would be satisfied. Lots of people like to say it's too early for FUCKING TIERS a YEAR after arcade release. Matchup charts? Hell no...
Loli Bacon Posted January 17, 2014 Posted January 17, 2014 The standards are roughly per round. And, we don't *ever* get "official" matchup charts. Never ever ever do we get such a thing. It doesn't exist. And the only time to discuss a ban is now. Why, because this is an actively developed game. There will be a new release before that side would be satisfied. Lots of people like to say it's too early for FUCKING TIERS a YEAR after arcade release. Matchup charts? Hell no... Official matchup charts are ones that are agreed upon the community. And if the game is going to die before we even bother learning matchups, then why are we even having this discussion?
Fistmaster049 Posted January 17, 2014 Posted January 17, 2014 You also have to remember matchups are partly built off player opinion and obviously opinions can differ That is no such thing as a matchup ratio that EVERYONE accepts is fact And your having this conversation because I believe your getting a bit off topic
Errol Posted January 17, 2014 Posted January 17, 2014 Official matchup charts are ones that are agreed upon the community. And if the game is going to die before we even bother learning matchups, then why are we even having this discussion? it's very very simple. We haven't had a 'community' 'respected' matchup chart... ever. For none of the games. People don't like writing matchup charts. We don't have a thread for tier lists or matchup charts because it is generally frowned upon. and unfruitful anyway. people can never agree on matchups, and there's always the other big thing, which is level of skill.
Amadeous Posted January 17, 2014 Posted January 17, 2014 Are you for real bro? 7-3 Means around an 80% win rate in matches. Which bumps up to ~90% in a Best of 3. The power of science Hold on back up. Errol go take your math class again. SMH.
Loli Bacon Posted January 17, 2014 Posted January 17, 2014 Hold on back up. Errol go take your math class again. SMH. Already did the math. In a 7-3 matchup, the chances of someone at disadvantage to win a match at an even skill level is ~26%. To win a best of 3 matches is ~18%
Errol Posted January 17, 2014 Posted January 17, 2014 Hold on back up. Errol go take your math class again. SMH. the current standard is per-round for matchups. Yes oddly enough. but the math bears out that a 7-3 matchup means a match win rate of greater than 70%. ..
Amadeous Posted January 17, 2014 Posted January 17, 2014 (edited) First I've heard of that hah. Who made that a standard? It's always been based on a match. Actually I thought of it. That standard is stupid. Bursts carry over between rounds so if you use your burst in round one you'd have different resources and therefore a different matchup in the second round. Fuck that matchups are based on matches. This ain't DnD we ain't doing no roundups. Edited January 17, 2014 by Amadeous
Loli Bacon Posted January 17, 2014 Posted January 17, 2014 the current standard is per-round for matchups. Yes oddly enough. but the math bears out that a 7-3 matchup means a match win rate of greater than 70%. .. Wrong. The standard is out of 10 matches, which means to win a single match is 30%. With the CORRECT value (math I just posted was per-round, and you were still wrong) the chances of the opponent at disadvantage winning a match is 30% (independent event) and the chance that the opponent wins 2/3 matches is ~27%.
Guymam Posted January 17, 2014 Posted January 17, 2014 (edited) Argue your hearts out, but also make sure you guys are looking at JP Kokonoes to see what she can do at high levels. American Kokos still drop combos. Take into account her potential too. Edited January 17, 2014 by Guymam
SuperJ Posted January 17, 2014 Posted January 17, 2014 (edited) show your work people chance of 7/3 advantage character winning a 2/3 set = (probability of winning in 2 games) + (probability of winning in 3 games) = (0.7 * 0.7) + 2 * (0.7 * 0.3) * 0.7 = 0.49 + 0.42 * 0.7 = 0.49 + 0.294 = 0.784 matchup scores should not be treated as per-round probabilities because they are not independent (bursts (ama beat me)) i have no interest in this statistics argument but i do have interest in correct math Edited January 17, 2014 by SuperJ
Amadeous Posted January 17, 2014 Posted January 17, 2014 Thanks SuperJ, I'm glad we can clear that up. Errol was right about 2/3 7-3 matches technically being closer to 80%, but wrong about it being based on rounds (seriously tell me where you heard that one from). Proceed with your silly Kokonoe arguments k thx
Recommended Posts