So, something like this?
I'm Ragna (since chip damage and Ragna seem to go nicely together), and I've got my opponent cornered and in pressure. Their heat is less than 50 -- not close to getting there -- they've got no bursts, and they're within range of dying from chip damage. Although they can keep blocking, it's a losing situation; they've got to keep guessing, and barrier will only hold off the chip damage from specials/D attacks for so long. Given this, I can reasonably expect my opponent to try to either mash or DP out soon, to keep from dealing with a losing situation.
Well, I suppose they could also try jumpout, but that seems much less rewarding than mash or DP -- a reset to neutral, as opposed to possibly regaining advantage. As for whether to expect mash or DP, it'd depend on the character.
Am I completely off, or is that reasonable -- assuming they're not reading my incoming attempt to bait DP etc.