Alright, I'll try my best. We all know Noel is a strong bitch and anything little mistake we make can easily reward her with 5K + and us in the corner. I will try to cover every/most aspect(s) of this matchup and look at it from all angles.
At Neutral :
It will mainly be you charging for stock and the Noel will be looking at the many options she has to try and get in. It will either be she runs up to you and decides to begin pressure. The run in can be stopped with a simply 5B, which if at max range will force you to stop charging and go in with some pressure of your or retreat, or even better you could hit her away with 5B - 22A for example but that's difficult hit confirm. 22A is -9 on block but from max range I doubt Noel will be able to punish it, and if she did, with 3C for example, she will not be able to followup but it'll mean you'll have to block the incoming pressure she lays on you.
If Noel attempts to IAD onto, you know the deal. 2C AA. Just be careful with this. If the Noel barrier blocks the 2C and you followup with 2CC on a CROUCHING player it will whiff and it will give Noel enough time to punish your whiff and send you to the corner where you do not want to be. It may be difficult to confirm but you need to get used to either doing 2C - 22C/Jump cancelling away if Noel barrier blocks it and is close to the ground. If she's quite high and barrier blocking you could do 2C - air throw for some mixup.
Alternatively, Noel may use 236C to stop you from charging from far which may be the main plan. It will catch your 5D and will allow Noel to charge in and begin pressure. The way to beat this would be to not charge for so long and maybe concentrate on 5D taps. Plus if the Noel gets predictable you can use 236C/D to score a CH since the recovery for her optic barrel (236X) is quite bad. Though even if the Noel is pacing up and down you can still charge in with 236C. From that far distance it's +5 on block so abuse the advantage you have and go for mixed pressure.
Also consider these:
Her air throw range is also quite big. When you realise how annoying it can be you'll know to stay put on the ground. Tsubaki's air normals aren't great and she won't stand a chance against Noel in the air. Noel's will attempt to use 3C against you if you get predictable with you 5B pokes as she's charging in or if she's much closer to you, in which case you'd want to be very mobile. You don't want to give Noel an easy chance to hit you with her bullshit.
Pressure wise
Consider this:
Noels will more likely mash out 2D if you use the 5CC - 6B block string. 6B only hits foot and 2D will go right over it.
Rather than using 6B, use 5C - 6C against mashing Noels. It will beat all their drive options, including on her wakeup too. If the 6C is blocked you can attempt to go for some additional JCC pressure, IAD over her into J214D crossup or charge delay JC, or you could simply just away to put yourself back at neutral considering the above options.
Your blockstrings shouldn't consist of anything too long or anything that consists of 6B.
Something like 5B - 2BB - 5C - 6C is fine. Just don't abuse it. Tsubaki's 6A and 6C have a quite a slow startup and she can thrown out of both of them. The blockstring I mentioned though should have you out of throw range however.
If you have Noel in the corner, depending on the skill of the player, you can use 5B - unblockable. It can work but make sure you're out of her drive range otherwise it'll beat your unblockable, and then you'll end up there. You should have some stocks provided that you played right at neutral and score some stock after knocking her down. Don't do a long blockstring into unblockable, such as 5BB - 2BB - 5CC - unblockable. Anything after 5CC can near guarantee an escape for Noel provided you didnt use 22A. You want to make your pressure unpredictable.
You could also walk back slightly and use 214D. If they do use a drive, it won't last for that long and your 214D will hit them. If it's done on block, followup with 22D at first instances. Alot of players tend to try something after Tsubaki does 214D.
Mixing in Kara throws will also be beneficial. 5B - kara throw is the best though, but you could also do 5BB - Kara throw, and 2B - kara throw.
2A is also +2 on block so you can abuse that to your hearts content. If it's a mashy Noel though, 2AAAA - throw will work really nicely.
Something else should consider. When ending your blockstrings, either end it with 22C to bust a primer or charge cancel and get away. It’s likely if you apply additional pressure from the charge cancel they will mash drive. Ending the string with 22C while Noel has heat can allow her to counter by using Fenrir, which will put you both at neutral again.
In additional, delayed blockstrings may help, such as 5BB(delay) or especially the better one, 5CC(delay). If the 5CC hits that allows for big damage to get in on counter hit. A variation of combos include:
(Corner) 5CC (CH) – Charge cancel – Dash 5B – 5CC – 22D – 6CC – 623C – J236A(w) – J214D – 623C – J214A(w) – 214D – 5C – 2CC – 22C – 5C – 2C – 236C -214B – 22B
(Near corner, if your hit confirm is good) 5CC(CH) – 6CC – 623C – J214B(w) – 623C – J236A(w) – J214D – 22D – 623C – J214A(w) – 214D – 2CC – 236D – 5C – 2CC -22C – 5C – 2C – 236C – 214B – 22B
Notice how I went for the optimal combos. You want to beat Noel as quickly as possible because it’s not a fun matchup and you want to make her pay. Simpler combos would be combos such as:
5CC(CH) – 6CC – 214D – 5C – 2CC – 236B – 214B – 22B or you could use the IAD combo instead. I recommend learning the harder combos if you can though. You want to always give it everything you’ve got and every little helps. All of the combos place you in a good position and Noel in the corner. Although, please avoid using J.CC – J236A – J214C combos and they place you in a bad position. You can either fast fall or charge in the air in which you can only followup with aerials and you will not be able to be to Air dash if you jumped twice in the combo. You will give Noel enough time to come in at you and pressure you again.
Regarding getting hit
Consider this:
The main thing you need to worry about when getting hit is the stupid resets she can do, especially nonsense with the 6C. It turns into the Tager element where you’ll need to know when to tech, and if you do tech, always always remember to use your barrier, otherwise you’ll get even more frustrated.
A common one to note would be when she ends the combo in D.236D (bloom trigger) – 6C – throw cancel -6C AGAIN. It’s the 2nd 6C that will catch you if you don’t have your barrier up regardless of how you tech. Either don’t tech, and let her just rack up her 000.1k stuff or tech but bear barrier in mind. Not teching is the easier route though, just remember to neutral tech at the right time otherwise her 2B will catch you in a reset if you stay too long on the ground. Her 2b will also catch you if you decide to try to roll out.
Regarding blocking:
So Noel has you on block. Her normals are quite good so outpoking her is out of the question. Keep your barrier up so when you have the chance you can return the situation to a neutral state by backdasking or air dashing away. Try not t panic and press buttons whilst she’s pressuring you either. She can easily catch you in a CH which can result in a full combo for her, or she can easily get throw rejects on you.
Also recognise when she may use her overhead (6B) on you:
5C – 6B
2A/5A – 6B
6A (AA) – 6B
5B – 6B
She can only followup with her notorious 3C. If you block this however, you can counter with 22A CH – 5B -2CC – IAD combo or alternatively dash in with 2A – 5B – 5CC-6B – DP Whiff, but this is harder to do when the opponent used 3C at max range. It’s not safe on block at all, so if they do it, please punish them.
Noel can also do 2AA - dash 2D which will cross you up and hit unless you block in the opposite direction. It's difficult to react to, even I still have troubles with it, but look out for it. Noel can't do much to you in combo if she catches you with a low
When blocking drives, if you’re super observant you can 2A her out of her overhead or the low, but the general idea would be to block. You can poke Noel out of her D.214D, or alternatively you can IB it and then punish it with 2A – combo. If you have stock 623D (623A trades with alot of her drives) works wonders. Eventually Noel may use 4D to evade it, but if you have more stock, you can use J236D – J214D to make it ‘safe’. Burning 3 stocks for that avoids Noel getting a full combo on you and you getting sent in the corner. If you have no stocks, you can easily use 623A, but without the stocks you are vulnerable to Noels that may use 4D in their strings , which will get her a FC and also D.214D. It is also more likely to trade with her stuff. You can probably understand better why stocks are not only good offensively but defensively as well.
Like I previously said, if you block too much and let Noel get away with all this you will find out by the time she’s done you will have lost at least 3 primers. If possible, use the barrier to make it easy for you to remove yourself from the pressure. There are alot of holes in Noel’s drive pressure but poking out of it can be too intimidating for the players who are not so familiar with what’s going on.
Noel can guard break you very easily when in her drive mode, so you need to pay close attention to your barrier. When you attempt to air dash away from Noel you can use JC to stop her approach options, and again return the situation to neutral.
Some other things to consider:
Tsubaki's 214X/236X loses to Noel's 3C, and can lose to 4D if done on reaction.
22X beats Noel's 3C.
6A/6C beat all Noel's wakeup drive options, both of which must be done AS she techs so it doesn't whiff.
Almost everything I've explained is illustrated by this video. You can see how useful 2C AA is, and how mashing during Noel's blockstrings is a very bad idea. You also witness Noel's drives beating my 236X and the 6C reset which I pointed out above which caught me midscreen. You also notice the 2D crossup Noel is capable of. You can also see how effective air dashing away is useful in the gaps of Noel's strings, and how 5B was keeping her at bay.
Anddddd you can see Noel get a throw reject on me, lol.
I got hit by some lows because I tried IB'ing btw, and you don't see optimal combos because the pad I was using then was ruined which caused me to drop a few things, including DP wiff combos.