You talkin to me? Well I'll answer anyways... the same reasons I thought this matchup was closer to even in CT.
Her mixup is terrible to start with and with two entire buttons losing to one of his attack (C and D losing to sledge) it's even worse. Even moreso since now her pressure game relies on drive mixup. 6c was one of the amazing things in CT that scared sledge happy Tagers but it's way slower now and not nearly as effective. 2d is no longer an opener overhead. Spring Raid no longer has iframes (though I've never experienced this, I would assume sledge vs. Spring Raid results in double counter hit, correct me if I'm mistaken.)
Even our fabled new poke (5c) is rendered useless. THOUGH I will admit 5d is now much more reliable against Sledge which is AMAZING.
Jab is slower, and now Tager can IB jab and 360a. 6a and 6c are terrible fucking anti airs now. Still has some trouble getting in, even worse with slower attacks. Our little poke combos for 1.5k pales in comparison to what he does when he catches you, and he WILL catch you because of her short range and the fact that he's able to punish not only the recovery of some of her attacks, but the damn active frames of certain attacks also.
Yes she has haidas on Tager I'm aware, but if Tager is getting hit (not punished) and haida'd often then quite frankly he's not playing the matchup right.
I dunno I just feel like he's output way more damage than Noel can in an average round, and has an easier time catching a character without a sword or a doll or staff etc etc
Just my opinions though. And yes I've played CS quite a bit.