Re-evaluating the match-up now that I'm way better with makoto. This is still true. It's difficult to find a way to approach Carl while he's turtle behind nirvana, he can just jA jump-ins on reaction and nirvana keeps you away on the ground. Don't get impatient trying to get close. Still sort of true, but 6A can be baited easily enough and 2D LV3 is too risky. Parry is much more useful since it ends earlier if baited. IB > Parry is good for when Carl activates 6D too late to be tight. Otherwise don't use it when you're sandwiched. 623C whiffs pretty much whenever he uses a low so be REALLY careful using it. CA whiffs if he uses 3C, as well. Again, learning how to block his mix-up is key to winning this match-up. 3C also goes under fuoco (41236D), it's actually pretty nice. May be a better option than parrying it... strange things have happened like Carl hitting me out while I'm stuck in parry hitstop on fuoco. 214AB and 214C are both AMAZING for escaping the corner and general positioning for this match-up.
I still stand by this completely. Makoto has great mix-up when you understand all of the different options she has, she isn't predictable at all. She can't zone out Carl but unlike other characters who also can't, she has better tools for avoiding sandwich pressure. Overall, this match-up comes down to who gets momentum and blows up the other player first.
miscellaneous combo stuff to remember -
* carl's hitbox sucks. air juggles like 5CC > 2D LV1 > 5CC are significantly more strict
* 6BC > 214ACD LV3 > 2D LV3 can connect, but you have to delay 214A slightly against him
* corner jD LV3 > 6A > 5D LV3, 6A whiffs because of his small reeling animation
* 5B > 6C > 214B > jA > jB is impossible against him, jA always whiffs.